Effect of land use change on urban surface energy budget and future prediction: A case study of four typical cities in latitudinal distribution of the Yangtze River in China

Source abstract

Land use/land cover change can alter the urban surface energy balance, thereby causing regional warming or cooling. In this study, future land use in 2038 for four typical cities in the Yangtze River Basin was simulated using the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and the influence of different land use types on the spatial distribution of urban net biophysical effect was analyzed. The results showed that: (1) According to the future urban expansion scenario (Ur), Chengdu would have a larger urban expansion ratio than Panzhihua, Wuhan, and Nanjing. Compared with 2000–2019, the urban areas of Chengdu would grow by 1.1 times under Ur from 2019 to 2038. (2) Net radiation (Rn) formed a spatial distribution pattern of western (Panzhihua) > Eastern (Nanjing) > Central (Wuhan and Chengdu). The Rn and latent heat flux (LHF) were on the rise overall and would continue to rise (5.4%) in the future. (3) Hot and cold spots of LHF−Rn exhibited clear spatial differentiation and differences in land-use composition, and areas with higher proportions of vegetation and water bodies were more likely to form hot-spot clusters, whereas areas dominated by cropland and with higher proportions of construction land were more likely to form cold-spot clusters. This study can help better understand the effects of urban surface energy budget on regional warming under different land use changes, and provide theoretical guidance for coping with urban climate change.