Between the local and the regional: A multiscale analysis of urban air pollution in São Paulo

Source abstract

This study investigates the multiscale determinants of air pollution in the municipality of São Paulo, focusing on coarse inhalable particulate matter and fine particulate matter, from 2015 to 2025. The research adopts a three-stage empirical strategy, combining descriptive statistics, exploratory correlation analysis, and multiple linear regression models adjusted for time series data, with correction for autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity. The results indicate that coarse particulate matter responds predominantly to local-scale urban processes associated with construction activity, degradation of road infrastructure, and urban maintenance instruments, confirming its high sensitivity to the daily management of public space. In contrast, fine particulate matter presents a structurally distinct dynamic, associated with diesel consumption and with the interaction between combustion-related circulation and agribusiness production cycles. Rather than indicating an exclusively local process, this pattern suggests that part of PM2.5 variability may reflect broader regional logistical dynamics that extend beyond the limits of immediate municipal governance. Additionally, temporal analysis indicates the potential relevance of particulate matter concentrations exceeding the reference values recommended by the World Health Organization, even during periods of reduced urban mobility, as observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. By empirically distinguishing between locally based urban pollution and systemically based urban pollution, the study contributes to the theoretical debate on urban environmental governance and offers support for the design of integrated public policies in metropolises embedded in complex regional production chains.