Public transport availability, delayed learning to drive and later life car dependence

Source abstract

High levels of car dependency are a major challenge for decarbonisation policy. This paper explores how early-life mobility environments shape long-run driving behaviour through two underexplored questions: whether public transport access predicts delayed learning to drive and whether the age individuals learn to drive predicts later driving intensity. We merge nationally representative survey data from Ireland ( N > 2000) with Public Transport Accessibility Level (PTAL) scores to model (1) age at learning to drive, using survival analysis, and (2) recent driving behaviour, using a hurdle regression model. Higher public transport accessibility is associated with significantly later learning, with individuals in high‑PTAL areas 30% less likely to have learned by age 20 than those with no access. Each year of delayed learning predicts a lower likelihood of weekday driving and a 2% reduction in Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT) on driving days. The findings have implications for understanding the long-term benefits of public transport provision.