Transit-induced household migration: A survival analysis of heterogeneous income effects near urban rail corridors

Source abstract

Urban rail investments can reshape neighborhood demographics, yet the timing and magnitude of any displacement pressures remain poorly documented. This study develops a methodological framework that links annual, household-level consumer microdata with quasi-experimental design to (i) trace in- and out-migration near new light-rail stations, (ii) explore the sociodemographic profile of moving households, and (iii) estimate how proximity, project milestones, and household income interact to change the risk of households migrating out of their neighborhoods. Our econometric analysis includes survival models with two alternative timescales, two control areas, and estimation of heterogeneous impacts by household income level. We illustrate the method with a case study of Charlotte’s LYNX Original and Extension of the Blue Line, drawing on a 16-year panel of 437,606 geocoded households. For the Original line, our results show a 4-5% increase in the probability of low- and medium-income households exiting from their neighborhood 5–9 years after the light rail began operating but no long-term effect. On the newer Extension, low- and middle-income households were 6-10% less likely to move out in the first four years after the light rail began operating. However, the share of low-income residents living near stations still declined, mainly due to medium-income household in-migration. Our findings highlight important lessons for policymakers. First, displacement pressure can surface years after opening; second, net demographic shifts often arise from selective in-migration rather than disproportionate exits; and third, equity measures must combine long-term anti-displacement policies with tools that preserve affordability and social mix in new development near transit.