Causal impacts of demand responsive transit on public transit demand: A spatial assessment framework

Source abstract

Demand-responsive transit (DRT) provides a flexible travel option that complements fixed-route transit (FRT), enhancing accessibility and mobility. However, its impact on public transit (PT) demand remains underexplored. This study develops a spatial assessment framework using causal impact inference to evaluate DRT's effects and conducts an empirical analysis in rural Korea. The framework identifies spatial regions with significant changes in PT demand, capturing both induced trips and modal shifts from cars, which are key measures for assessing DRT's role in equitable and sustainable mobility. Regression models further examine the influence of sociodemographic and built environmental factors on these changes. Results show that about half of the residents in DRT service areas experienced a 30% increase in PT demand. Areas with lower population density, fewer elderly residents, and higher bus stop density benefited more. These findings provide valuable insights for equitable and sustainable DRT planning and evaluation.