Decision-supportive framework for sustainable transport under deep uncertainty

Source abstract

Sustainable Transport (ST) has become a guiding concept for developing systems that reduce environmental impacts, support social well-being, balance economic performance, and safeguard future generations. Despite its broad acceptance, implementation remains far slower than anticipated, delaying the transition toward more sustainable mobility. A central reason lies in the uncertainties surrounding ST—ranging from its definition, to disruptive trends (like digitalization, automation, AI, behavior changes in the post-COVID, and changes in the political landscape) to the outcomes of ST policies and the trade-offs among them. While adaptive policymaking has been suggested as a promising way to handle these uncertainties, translating it into practice remains difficult. This paper helps close this gap by (i) systematically formulating the challenges that hinder ST implementation, and (ii) proposing an adaptive policymaking approach tailored to transport. We present a step-by-step decision support framework that includes multiple perspectives and conceives transport as a system within a wider socio-technical system focused on accessibility. We illustrate this practical tool with a simplified case study. This framework provides a valuable set of tools to aid the transition toward next-generation mobility that is resilient, inclusive, and sustainable.