Crime, economic forces and trucks crossings in the US–Mexico border region

Source abstract

We investigate northbound loaded truck crossings from Mexico to the United States between 2015 and 2023. A weaker peso, exports and US industrial production positively affect loaded containers. Truck robberies at the municipal level show no statistically significant relationship with truck loadings, whereas truck robberies at the national and state levels present a negative, persistent association. Results suggest that Mexico–US trade would benefit from lower average Mexican crime rates. In addition to comparing Texas with other border states, this study documents the role of crime specific to the transportation sector as a negative relevant driver of truck crossings to the United States.