Compound exposure of cropland to extreme precipitation and transportation disadvantage in China

Source abstract

Global climate change and extreme precipitation events pose increasing threats to agricultural systems worldwide. However, existing studies often fail to integrate the synergistic effects of precipitation, neglect the role of transportation infrastructure, and rely on data with coarse spatial resolution. To address these gaps, this study develops a “climate–cropland–transportation” framework. By integrating high-resolution hourly precipitation data (0.1˚) and 30 m cropland distribution data, we quantified the thresholds, frequency, and intensity of extreme precipitation to construct a Cropland Extreme Precipitation Exposure ( CEPE ) index using the entropy weighting method. Four transportation accessibility scenarios—considering the presence or absence of expressways connecting prefecture- and county-level cities—were simulated to examine their spatial coupling with the CEPE . The results reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity in CEPE across the study area. Rural population density and industrial structure exert nonlinear regulatory effects on cropland exposure to extreme precipitation. Extreme precipitation intensity peaks at moderate population levels, while areas where the primary industry accounts for 30–40% of the economy constitute a critical buffering zone. Geographically, croplands in southwest China remain highly threatened by extreme precipitation, whereas the exposure fluctuates considerably across the Huang–Huai–Hai Plain and the Northeast China Plain. Uneven transportation accessibility further amplifies these exposures, creating vulnerability traps in regions with high exposure but low accessibility, such as the Northeast China Plain. These findings offer valuable insights for developing targeted agricultural and infrastructure strategies to strengthen agricultural resilience under climate extremes.