Between dispersion and recentring: Observations on post-pandemic migration flow and housing relocation behaviours in Montréal, Canada

Source abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has generated debate over whether changes in work and travel behaviour have resulted in a lasting reconfiguration of residential location preferences. This study examines residential relocation behaviour before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic using a spatial multinomial logit model applied to mobility survey data from the Montréal metropolitan region. The model achieves strong explanatory power and enables assessment of how housing relocation determents changed across pandemic phases. There is evidence of decentralization in relocation patterns; however, this evidence does not support a structural decline in the importance of spatial land use and transport factors, such as accessibility. Job accessibility by public transport remains positively valued across all periods, but the penalty associated with distance to work weakens after the pandemic. This weakening indicates increased tolerance for residential-workplace separation but not necessarily a rejection of accessibility itself. Neighbourhood quality consistently shapes relocation utility, alongside a strengthening post-pandemic preference for larger dwellings in suburban locations. Car ownership enables relocation beyond the core, while transit reliance anchors households to central areas. For low-income households, pandemic-related decentralization was temporary, with post-pandemic patterns reinforcing long-standing affordability constraints. Together, these findings suggest that pandemic-induced decentralization was a behavioural adaptation within structural determinants of residential choice. The study contributes to understanding how short-term shocks interact with housing markets, accessibility, and mobility resources, and informs housing and transport planning in post-pandemic urban regions.