Unequal Residential Gains and Losses Under Rising Housing Prices: Evidence from Longitudinal Relocation Behavior

Source abstract

Rising housing prices are a prominent feature of contemporary urban housing markets. While displacement research has largely emphasized the adverse residential outcomes among disadvantaged groups amid price escalation, less is known about the potential gains for other socioeconomic groups. We construct a multidimensional relocation assessment framework to examine how local housing price growth shapes residents’ residential outcomes in Shenzhen, China. We integrate housing transaction records from 3,829 communities with longitudinal mobile signaling data and apply fixed-effects models. The results show that price growth, especially over three- to five-year periods, is associated with lower move rates. When moves do occur, they diverge into two distinct outcomes. Residential gains include shorter moving distances, relocation toward central areas, and moves to higher-quality neighborhoods with improved travel convenience and better access to urban amenities, whereas residential losses manifest as relocating to lower-priced areas. Further analysis shows clear heterogeneity: gains are concentrated among formal housing residents, older cohorts, and those located in central areas, while losses are more common among informal housing residents, younger groups, and residents in peripheral areas. The findings highlight the multidimensional and unequal impacts outcomes of housing price growth, underscoring the need for targeted housing policies in rapidly appreciating areas.