A dynamic stock-level life cycle assessment framework integrating material, energy, climate change scenarios, and grid decarbonization in urban commercial buildings

Source abstract

This study develops a dynamic building-stock life cycle assessment (LCA) framework to evaluate the temporal evolution of greenhouse gas emissions under climate change and electricity-grid decarbonization, demonstrated for 200 commercial buildings in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (USA). The time-resolved framework jointly represents material stock evolution, cyclic renovation flows, end-of-life processes, and climate-driven operational energy demand. It couples urban building energy modeling with material stock analysis and uses Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) climate projections across four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) together with grid-decarbonization trajectories. Foreground flows are linked to ecoinvent v3.10, and climate impacts are reported as global warming potential. Projected warming modestly reduces total energy demand because declining heating loads outweigh rising cooling requirements. Operational energy remains the dominant contributor to cumulative emissions, but grid decarbonization reduces cumulative operational emissions by ∼43% across SSPs. Construction material supply emissions are dominated early by mineral and cementitious materials, while insulation contributes an increasing share later; renovation emissions are primarily driven by plastic and bituminous materials. The framework identifies which life-cycle phases, material categories, and operational energy uses dominate emissions over time, enabling prioritization of electrification, renovation scheduling, low-carbon material procurement, and circular end-of-life strategies for long-term building-sector decarbonization.