Regional energy security: Case study of path dependence and adoption readiness in the Southeastern United States

Source abstract

Regions of the United States (U.S.) are challenged by an array of energy security risks. Complementary constructs of path dependence and adoption readiness, combined with rich data analytics are deployed to investigate four energy conundrums emerging from a participatory planning initiative in the U.S. Southeast (SE). The theory of path dependence explains (1) how low electricity rates and high reserve margins have made the SE an attractive target for industrial and data center investments that now stresses energy accessibility and (2) how high energy burdens have resulted from long-lived inefficient housing built when regional energy prices were low and poverty was high, creating high and often unaffordable energy bills. The concept of adoption readiness explains (3) how the region's relatively weak energy security policies have resulted in low levels of adoption of clean-tech products and (4) how its limited experience with unconventional market mechanisms has contributed to its low level of adoption of forest carbon offsets. We offer policy recommendations that could strengthen energy security in the SE by reducing historic path dependencies and fostering adoption readiness. Recommended policies include strengthening the SE electricity market, creating clean portfolio standards and zero-emission vehicle mandates, and expanding carbon offset markets to include equity-qualified energy-efficient housing. The result is arguably the first participatory, data-driven, model-informed energy security analysis of a multi-state U.S. region. • Multiple dimensions of regional energy security. • Energy conundrums amidst unprecedented electricity load growth. • Complementary concepts of path dependence and adoption readiness. • High energy burdens and lack of adoption readiness are persistent in the Southeast. • Regional collaboration can weaken path dependency and strengthen adoption readiness.