Electric Vehicle Adoption in Urban Logistics: A Nonlinear Interaction and Scenario Analysis in the Case of Lithuania

Source abstract

This study investigates the key drivers and barriers influencing the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in urban freight logistics, using Lithuania as a case study. An integrated methodological framework combining Delphi, Fuzzy logic, DEMATEL, and System Dynamics is applied to identify critical factors and analyse their interdependencies. Four main drivers are identified: infrastructure, acquisition costs, technological development, and policy measures. Expert evaluations are transformed into fuzzy values to quantify factor importance, which are then incorporated into a dynamic simulation model to assess EV adoption and CO2 emission trends. In addition to baseline scenarios, extreme scenario analysis is conducted to evaluate system sensitivity to economic, technological, and policy changes. The results reveal strong nonlinear relationships between factors and highlight the importance of their balanced development. The findings suggest that rapid EV adoption in urban logistics requires a coordinated approach integrating infrastructure expansion, financial incentives, technological progress, and policy support. The study provides practical insights for policymakers and logistics companies aiming to accelerate sustainable urban transport transitions.