Integrated Machine Learning Based Groundwater Quality Prediction in a Peri-Urban Area: The Case of Attica Region, Greece

Source abstract

Groundwater quality assessment in urban and peri-urban environments is often constrained by incomplete monitoring records, irregular sampling frequencies, and heterogeneous environmental datasets. The primary objective of this study is to predict the Water Quality Index (WQI) in the Attica River Basin, Greece, using advanced machine learning (ML) techniques. A groundwater quality dataset comprising 958 observations from 80 monitoring stations was analyzed using six physicochemical parameters, namely electrical conductivity, ammonium, nitrate, nitrite, chloride, and sulphate. Three modeling approaches, namely TabNet (with Winsorization), SVM, and Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM), were implemented to estimate groundwater quality conditions. To address the challenge of missing data, Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) with Predictive Mean Matching (PMM) was implemented and systematically compared against conventional imputation approaches, including smoothed averages, interpolation, and forward-fill methods. The novelty of this study lies in the integration of open-access groundwater chemistry data, advanced multivariate imputation (MICE-PMM), and attention-based deep learning (TabNet) for groundwater quality prediction in a Mediterranean peri-urban area under data-scarce conditions. Using a multi-year groundwater monitoring dataset, the results indicate that the integrated MICE-PMM and TabNet framework achieved the highest predictive performance, with R2 = 0.91, NSE = 0.91, RMSE = 52.21, and MAE = 25.68. Feature importance and sensitivity analyses identified nitrate as the dominant driver of WQI variability, highlighting the strong influence of anthropogenic nutrient loading on groundwater quality. Overall, the proposed framework provides a transferable, data-driven approach for groundwater quality prediction, environmental monitoring, and groundwater resource management in urban and peri-urban aquifer systems characterized by incomplete environmental datasets.