A Socio-Environmental Dynamic Model for Assessing Urban Heat Island Influence on Particulate Matter Concentrations: Evidence from a High-Altitude Latin American Megacity

Source abstract

Urban growth and climate change intensify urban heat islands (UHIs), altering atmospheric stability and promoting the accumulation of particulate matter ≤ 10 µm (PM10) and particulate matter ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5), particularly in high-altitude megacities. However, there remains a scarcity of integrated dynamic models capable of representing these interactions at the intra-urban scale. This study develops a socio-environmental dynamic model to evaluate the influence of UHIs on PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations across localities of a high-altitude Latin American megacity (Bogotá, Colombia). A dynamic simulation model was developed in Vensim®, integrating temperature, PM10, PM2.5, and citizen perception data. Statistical and spatial analyses were conducted to represent intra-urban thermo-atmospheric interactions. The results show that the model captures the influence of UHIs on PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations. Higher PM concentrations are simulated in localities with high imperviousness (PM10: 33.4–50.4 µg/m3; PM2.5: 21.5–25.1 µg/m3) and lower PM concentrations in areas with greater vegetation cover. Sensitivity analysis of the dynamic model reveals nonlinear amplifications of up to 15–20 µg/m3 in PM10 and 8–10 µg/m3 in PM2.5 associated with small thermal variations (1–2 °C). Under scenarios with significant UHI intensity, increases reach 4–6 µg/m3 in PM10 and 3–4 µg/m3 in PM2.5. These findings confirm that UHIs act as amplifiers of pollution and that urban thermal interventions could reduce PM concentrations by up to 10–20%.